Apple could be heading into a tighter hardware supply situation in 2026. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says the company is scaling back its hardware shipment plans as a global DRAM shortage makes memory components harder to secure.
The shortage is already affecting Apple’s Mac lineup and could soon impact the upcoming iPhone 18 series.
Memory shortage is the real problem
Kuo’s comments came while disputing a recent report claiming TSMC has around US$1 billion worth of Apple’s unpackaged processors waiting for memory chips.
Kuo says the situation is not that dramatic. Apple typically plans processor production at least three months ahead, based on expected memory availability, and does not have TSMC produce huge numbers of wafers without a corresponding need.
He believes the memory shortage is real, but there is no evidence that TSMC is sitting on US$1 billion worth of unused Apple processor inventory waiting for memory. Apple and TSMC closely coordinate their supply chains, making such a scenario unlikely.
AI data centers are squeezing consumer hardware
The shortage is largely being driven by demand from AI data centers.
Memory manufacturers are prioritizing AI-related contracts because they are more profitable, leaving less capacity for consumer devices such as Macs, iPads, and smartphones.
Apple has already felt the impact. Memory shortages have affected the Mac Studio, Mac mini, and MacBook Air, while supply constraints are expected to extend to upcoming iPhones.
Higher memory costs have also pushed product prices up and caused longer waiting times for some devices.
Apple raised prices across its Mac and iPad lineup in June, while iPhone prices are expected to increase in September.
iPhone 18 Pro could be in limited supply
The upcoming iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and foldable iPhone Ultra could launch in limited quantities because of the memory shortage.
The devices are also expected to sell out during the preorder period if supply remains constrained.
For Apple, the issue isn’t simply whether it can manufacture its next iPhones. It is whether there will be enough memory available to produce them at the scale it originally planned.
For now, Kuo’s assessment is clear: the US$1 billion TSMC inventory claim appears overstated, but the underlying memory shortage is very real.