After 14 years, the global smartphone market is set for a historic reversal. Apple is projected to seize the top spot from Samsung in overall annual smartphone shipments for 2025, according to forecasts by Counterpoint Research.
This is not a temporary lead, but a fundamental shift fueled by aggressive iPhone demand and a massive user upgrade cycle.
The New Market Order (2025 Projection)
| Vendor | Projected 2025 Shipments | Global Market Share |
|---|---|---|
| Apple | ~243 million units | 19.4% |
| Samsung | ~235 million units | 18.7% |
Apple’s projected 10% year-over-year shipment growth significantly outpaces the overall global market’s anticipated 3.3% expansion, establishing clear market dominance at the premium end.
Three Primary Catalysts
1. iPhone 17 Sales Surge: The latest iPhone 17 series has performed above expectations globally, especially in critical markets like the U.S. and China, recording double-digit sales growth compared to its predecessor during the launch period. This confirms that premium, high-margin devices continue to be a recession-proof segment.
2. The Replacement Cycle Peak: Millions of consumers who purchased smartphones during the initial COVID-19 boom (2020-2021) are now entering their mandatory upgrade window. Due to the high satisfaction and device longevity associated with the iPhone, Apple is the direct and primary beneficiary of this synchronized refresh cycle.
3. Secondhand Market Loyalty: Apple’s enormous installed base—estimated to have moved 358 million secondhand units between 2023 and mid-2025—is acting as a massive loyalty pipeline. These users, having entered the iOS ecosystem at a lower price point, are overwhelmingly likely to buy a new iPhone when their current device requires replacement, guaranteeing stable future demand.
The Outlook
Counterpoint Research not only forecasts Apple to take the crown in 2025 but to hold that position through 2029.
Samsung, while maintaining strong performance in the mid-range A-series, faces severe competition from Chinese brands that continue to undercut its price points. Conversely, Apple’s roadmap, including anticipated budget-friendly ‘iPhone e’ models and future advancements in its ecosystem, guarantees continued high-value growth, making the Korean giant’s path to reclaiming the top spot exceptionally difficult.
Analysts project Apple will hold the top spot through 2029. Do you agree with this long-term forecast?
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